Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.825189 0.959995 1.109393 1.287181 1.492956 1.723611 2.001779
2025-02-02 0.639449 0.829432 1.063152 1.371560 1.767677 2.259299 2.915970
2025-02-09 0.525792 0.736704 1.016060 1.412586 1.960605 2.691146 3.739346
2025-02-16 0.443080 0.661187 0.968009 1.430179 2.108099 3.065707 4.521660
2025-02-23 0.377791 0.595443 0.918026 1.429580 2.219534 3.392545 5.267242
2025-03-02 0.324477 0.537159 0.867485 1.416029 2.302989 3.680130 5.981278
2025-03-09 0.284824 0.493172 0.830900 1.415827 2.402102 3.996858 6.771675
2025-03-16 0.243232 0.439233 0.769904 1.365553 2.409952 4.163737 7.332371
2025-03-23 0.231972 0.435338 0.791216 1.455715 2.663180 4.761887 8.686096
2025-03-30 0.202590 0.394624 0.742761 1.415754 2.681495 4.955768 9.351104
2025-04-06 0.176659 0.356563 0.693886 1.367886 2.677747 5.106750 9.950786
2025-04-13 0.155264 0.324211 0.651354 1.325971 2.678646 5.263592 10.574958
2025-04-20 0.143528 0.310018 0.642896 1.351213 2.816221 5.700574 11.805304
2025-04-27 0.139228 0.310698 0.664269 1.439673 3.091991 6.439614 13.729125
2025-05-04 0.130866 0.301469 0.663981 1.482702 3.278674 7.019977 15.394706
2025-05-11 0.121249 0.288075 0.653045 1.501154 3.414626 7.509491 16.923698
2025-05-18 0.111207 0.272257 0.634696 1.500526 3.507884 7.917060 18.319041
2025-05-25 0.101296 0.255351 0.611732 1.486313 3.568376 8.258936 19.605854
2025-06-01 0.093394 0.242189 0.595699 1.486101 3.660752 8.681094 21.123218
2025-06-08 0.083111 0.221671 0.559696 1.433370 3.621989 8.798415 21.938501
2025-06-15 0.082274 0.225189 0.582429 1.527938 3.952319 9.815145 25.028215
2025-06-22 0.074135 0.208406 0.552568 1.486024 3.937612 10.003319 26.102628
2025-06-29 0.066453 0.191783 0.521048 1.435817 3.895556 10.119380 27.008359